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Metrics

Affiliate Holdout Test

An incrementality measurement methodology where a brand temporarily disables affiliate attribution (or a specific publisher's tracking) for a randomly selected segment of buyers to measure what percentage of those buyers would have purchased without affiliate influence. Structure: randomly split buyers into exposed (normal affiliate program, including the publisher being tested) and holdout (affiliate tracking disabled) groups; compare purchase rates between groups during the test period; the lift in purchase rate for the exposed group represents the incremental contribution of the affiliate program or publisher. Gold standard for incrementality measurement but requires: statistical rigor (sufficient sample size, randomization quality); a period long enough to observe meaningful purchase volume; careful implementation to avoid contamination between groups. Useful for: measuring overall program incrementality; measuring coupon publisher incrementality; evaluating cashback publisher value; testing new commission structures.