The most rigorous affiliate incrementality testing method — divides audience into a control group (exposed to affiliate marketing normally) and a holdout group (excluded from affiliate publisher targeting) and compares conversion rates between groups. The difference in conversion rate = affiliate channel incremental lift. Requires: large audience (50K+ users per group), publisher targeting controls, and 30-90 day test window. Used by programs >$3M annual GMV with dedicated analytics resources. Simpler alternative: publisher-level pause test.
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